Future retirement is one of the issues that most worries the Spanish. The maintenance of the current pension system, due to the increasing decrease in people of active age and the aging of the population, makes both citizens and administrations impatient.
According to an analysis by our company, if current conditions continue, those under 30 years of age will receive an average retirement pension equivalent to 575 euros per month, well below the current 1,030 euros that retirees have received in 2015.
The demographic composition of the Spanish population will mean that within 10 years there will be a million more pensioners than today. In the long term, the scenario will have changed in 30 years, doubling the number of pensioners, which will go from the current 6 million to almost 12 million. In this context, a redefinition of the system or a reduction in pensions will be necessary.
This forecast has been calculated only for retirement pensions, so it does not include those for orphans or widows and, to extract it, the following parameters have been taken into account: the evolution of GDP, the evolution of the population, spending on pensions and the number of pensioners that there would be in the coming years.
As for the age groups, those between 30 and 34 years old, whose retirement age will take place between 2048 and 2052, will have an average pension range that will vary between 600 and 650 euros; while those who are now between 35 and 39 years old will receive an average between 675 and 725 euros.
Those between 40 and 44, meanwhile, will range between 725 and 775 euros; and, finally, those who are currently between 45 and 49 years old and who retire between 2033 and 2037, will receive an average pension between 825 and 875 euros.
In short, Spaniards who are now under 30 years of age will receive an average adjusted retirement pension that will be almost half of what their parents receive, but paying the same amount, as long as the conditions remain as they are today. If this scenario does not change, private pension plans will become a ‘have to’ for millennials.